NOTE ON FIRST REVISED ESTIMATES OF NATIONAL INCOME, CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE, SAVING AND CAPITAL FORMATION, 2022-23
In this part, First Revised Estimates of National Income, Consumption Expenditure, Saving and Capital Formation for the financial year 2022-23 along with Second Revised Estimates for the financial year 2021-22 and Third Revised Estimates for the financial year 2020-21 (with Base Year 2011-12) are given.Lucknow Wealth Management
2. The First Revised Estimates for the year 2022-23 have been compiled using industry-wise/institution-wise detailed information instead of using the benchmark-indicator method employed at the time of release of Provisional Estimates on 31st May, 2023. The estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and other aggregates for the years 2020-21 and 2021-22 have also undergone revisions on account of use of latest available datasets on agricultural production; industrial production (final results of ASI: 2020-21 and 2021-22); government data as available in budget documents (replacing Revised Estimates with actuals for the year 2021-22); comprehensive data available from various source agencies like Ministry of Corporate Affairs (MCA), Reserve Bank of India (RBI), National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development (NABARD) etc. and additional data from State/UT Directorates of Economics and Statistics (DES).
3. The salient features of the revised estimates at aggregate level are as follows.
Gross Domestic Product
4. Real GDP or GDP at constant (2011-12) prices for the years 2022-23 and 2021-22 stands at ₹160.71 lakh crore and ₹150.22 lakh crore, respectively, showing a growth of 7.0 per cent during 2022-23 as compared to growth of 9.7 per cent during 2021-22.
5. Nominal GDP or GDP at current prices for the year 2022-23 is estimated at ₹269.50 lakh crore, against ₹235.97 lakh crore for the year 2021-22, showing a growth of 14.2 per cent during 2022-23 as compared to growth of 18.9 per cent during 2021-22.
GVA and its Industry-wise Analysis
6. At the aggregate level, nominal Gross Value Added (GVA) at basic prices has increased by 14.0 per cent during 2022-23 compared to growth of 18.8 per cent during 2021-22. Real GVA, i.e., GVA at constant (2011-12) prices, has increased by 6.7 per cent in 2022-23, compared to 9.4 per cent growth in 2021-22.
7. The shares of broad sectors of the economy in overall GVA during 2011-12 to 2022-23 and the annual growth rates during these periods are mentioned below:
*: Third Revised and Final Estimates; #: Second Revised and Final Estimates; @: First Revised Estimates
8. The growth rates of Primary sector (comprising Agriculture, Livestock, Forestry, Fishing and Mining & Quarrying), Secondary sector (comprising Manufacturing, Electricity, Gas, Water Supply & Other Utility Services, and Construction) and Tertiary sector (Services) have been estimated as 4.4 per cent, 2.1 per cent and 10.0 per cent respectively in 2022-23 as against growth rates of 4.8 per cent, 12.7 per cent and 9.2 per cent respectively in the previous years. The growth in real GVA during 2022-23 is on account of growth in ‘Electricity, Gas, Water Supply & Other Utility Services’, ‘Construction’, ‘Trade, repair, Hotels and Restaurants’, ‘Transport, Storage and Communication & Services related to Broadcasting’, ‘Financial Services’, ‘Real Estate, Ownership of Dwelling & Professional Services’ and ‘Other services’ as may be seen from Statement 4.2B. However, ‘Agriculture, Livestock, Forestry and Fishing’, ‘Mining and Quarrying’ and ‘Public Administration and Defense’ have witnessed modest growth, and ‘Manufacturing’ sector has slightly contracted, during this period.
9. Net National Income (NNI) at current prices for the year 2022-23 stands at ₹234.39 lakh crore as against ₹206.53 lakh crore in 2021-22, showing a growth of 13.5 per cent during 2022-23 as compared to growth of 19.7 per cent in the previous year.
Gross National Disposable Income
10. Gross National Disposable Income (GNDI) at current prices is estimated at ₹273.99 lakh crore for the year 2022-23, while the estimate for the year 2021-22 stands at ₹239.25 lakh crore, showing a growth of 14.5 per cent for year 2022-23 as compared to growth of 18.8 per cent in the year 2021-22.
11. Gross Saving during 2022-23 is estimated at ₹81.50 lakh crore against ₹73.63 lakh crore during 2021-22. Share of Non-financial corporations, Financial corporations, General Government and Household sectors in Gross Savings during 2022-23 stands at 37.3%, 9.3%, (-) 7.5% and 60.9% respectively. Rate of Gross Saving to GNDI for 2022-23 is estimated at 29.7 per cent as against 30.8 per cent for 2021-22.
12. Gross Capital Formation (GCF) at current prices is estimated at ₹86.78 lakh crore for the year 2022-23 as compared to ₹76.48 lakh crore during 2021-22. The rate of GCF to GDP is 32.2 per cent during 2022-23 as against 32.4 per cent in the 2021-22. The rates of capital formation in the years 2011-12 to 2019-20 and 2021-22 to 2022-23 have been higher than the rate of saving because of positive net capital flow from RoW.
13. In terms of the share to the total GFCF (at current prices), the highest contributor is Non-Financial Corporations followed by Household sector, share of which stood at 44.2% and 41.8% respectively in 2022-23.
14. The rate of GCF to GDP at constant (2011-12) prices was 36.7 per cent in 2021-22 and 34.9 per cent in 2022-23.
Consumption Expenditure
15. Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices is estimated at ₹164.23 lakh crore for the year 2022-23 as against ₹143.83 lakh crore in 2021-22. In relation to GDP, the PFCE to GDP ratio at current prices during 2021-22 and 2022-23 are 61.0 per cent and 60.9 per cent respectively. At constant (2011-12) prices, the PFCE is estimated at ₹87.33 lakh crore and ₹93.24 lakh crore, respectively for the years 2021-22 and 2022-23. The corresponding PFCE to GDP ratio for the years 2021-22 and 2022-23 are 58.1 per cent and 58.0 per cent respectively.
16. Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) at current prices is estimated at ₹28.84 lakh crore for the year 2022-23 as against ₹24.72 lakh crore during 2021-22. At constant (2011-12) prices the estimates of GFCE for the years 2021-22 and 2022-23 stand at ₹14.80 lakh crore and ₹16.14 lakh crore respectively.
Per Capita Estimates
17. Per Capita Income i.e. Per Capita Net National Income at current prices is estimated at ₹1,50,906 and ₹1,69,496 respectively for the years 2021-22 and 2022-23. Per Capita PFCE at current prices, for the years 2021-22 and 2022-23 is estimated at ₹1,05,092 and ₹1,18,755 respectively.
Summary of Revisions in the GDP Estimates
Revision in the estimates of the year 2022-23
18. The following statement gives the major reasons of variation between the Provisional Estimates (released on 31st May, 2023) and the First Revised Estimates of GVA for 2022-23.
Reason(s) for revisions in the estimates of the years 2020-21 and 2021-22
19. The use of latest available data from various agencies has resulted in some changes in both the levels of GVA and growth estimates for the years 2020-21 and 2021-22.
Revisions in Major Aggregates
20. The level of revisions in the major aggregates at current and constant (2011-12) prices are given in the following table:
Major National Income Aggregates and their % Changes
Major reasons for revisions in GVA/GDP estimates are as given below:
Use of updated estimates of production and prices of some crops, livestock products, fish and forestry products from few States and DESs and latest CCS (2020-21) rates of by-products in crop sector.
Use of updated input rate received from IBM.
Use of final results of ASI: 2020-21.
Use of latest reports of few NBFIs/ financial auxiliaries.
Use of updated information received from state governments and local bodies.
Use of updated production estimates (Final Estimates) of Foodgrains, Commercial and Horticulture crops from Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare in place of 4th Advance and 3rd Advance estimates, respectively.
Use of updated estimates of production and prices of some crops, livestock products, fish and forestry products from a few States and DESs; and latest CCS (2021-22) rates of by-products in crop sector.
Use of updated GVA supplied by NDEs for the Electricity sector.
Use of ASI: 2021-22 data and augmented data for non-financial private corporate sector.
Use of ‘Actuals’ in place of ‘Revised Estimates’ of different items of expenditure and receipts in the Central & State government budgets.
Use of updated information on Local Bodies and Autonomous Institutions.
Use of latest annual reports of Public Sector Enterprises.
Use of latest data received for Cooperative Banks, Postal Life Insurance (PLI) & Post Office Saving Bank (POSB), Non-Banking Financial Institutions (NBFIs), and Financial Auxiliaries.
21. List of Statements released in part B is given below. More details of the revised estimates, i.e., FRE 2022-23, SRE 2021-22 and TRE 2020-21 are available in Statements 1.1B to 9B of Annexure B, which are given in PDF format of the press note.
Statement 1.1B: Key Aggregates of National Accounts at Current PricesUdabur Stock
Statement 1.2B: Key Aggregates of National Accounts at Constant (2011-12) Prices
Statement 2B: Per Capita Income, Product and Final Consumption
Statement 3.1B: Output by Economic Activity and Capital Formation by Industry of Use at Current Prices
Statement 3.2B: Output by Economic Activity and Capital Formation by Industry of Use at Constant (2011-12) Prices
Statement 4.1B: Gross Value Added by Economic Activity at Current Basic Prices
Statement 4.2B: Gross Value Added by Economic Activity at Constant (2011-12) Basic Prices
Statement 5B: Finances for Gross Capital Formation
Statement 6.1B: Gross Capital Formation by Industry of Use at Current Prices
Statement 6.2B: Gross Capital Formation by Industry of Use at Constant (2011-12) Prices
Statement 7.1B: Gross Fixed Capital Formation by Asset & Institutional Sector at Current Prices
Statement 7.2B: Gross Fixed Capital Formation by Asset & Institutional Sector at Constant (2011-12) Prices
Statement 8.1B: Private Final Consumption Expenditure at Current Prices
Statement 8.2B: Private Final Consumption Expenditure at Constant (2011-12) Prices
Statement 9B: Institutional Sectors – Key Economic Indicators at Current Prices
GVA at basic prices (Production Approach) = Output at basic price – Intermediate Consumption
GVA at basic prices (Income Approach) = CE + OS/MI + CFC + Production taxes less Production subsidies(i)
GDP = ∑ GVA at basic prices + Product taxes less Product subsidies(ii)
NDP/NNI = GDP/GNI – CFC
GNI = GDP + Net primary income from ROW (Receipts less payments)
Primary Incomes = CE + Property and Entrepreneurial Income
NNDI =NNI + other current transfers(iii) from ROW, net (Receipts less payments)Lucknow Stock
GNDI = NNDI + CFC = GNI + other current transfers(iii) from ROW, net (Receipts less payments)
Gross Capital Formation(iv) (Financing Side) = Gross Savings + Net Capital Inflow from ROW
GCF (Expenditure Side) = GFCF + CIS + Valuables
Gross Disposable Income of Govt. = GFCE + Gross Saving of General Government
Gross Disposable Income (GDI) of Households = GNDI – GDI of Govt. – Gross Savings of All Corporations
REMARKS ON THE FORMULAE
Production taxes or subsidies are paid or received with relation to production and are independent of the volume of actual productionJaipur Stock. Some examples are:
Production Taxes – Land Revenues, Stamps & Registration fees and Tax on profession
Production Subsidies – Subsidies to Railways, Subsidies to village and small industries.
Product taxes or subsidies are paid or received on per unit of product. Some examples are:
Product Taxes- Goods & Services Tax, Excise duties, Sales tax, Service Tax and Import, Export duties
Product Subsidies- Food, Petroleum and fertilizer subsidies.
Other Current Transfers refers to current transfers other than the primary incomes.
Gross Capital Formation (GCF) at the current as well as the constant prices is estimated by two approaches: – (i) through flow of funds, derived as Gross Saving plus net capital flow from Rest of the World (RoW); and (ii) by the commodity flow approach, derived by the type of assets.
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